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Client: Peri-Urban Rural Councils, Greater Melbourne

A key challenge facing large growing cities like Melbourne is the increasing pressure on surrounding rural land and communities. To address this challenge, planners require a better understanding of where people would like to live, the potential impact arising from these decisions, and what can be done about it.

Spatial Vision, working with the RMIT School of Global Studies, Social Sciences and Planning, and Peri-urban Councils, has developed a spatial modelling technique to estimate the projected supply of land parcels available for development and the potential impacts on biodiversity values, agricultural uses and water resources. This approach includes a framework that allows planning scenarios (including climate change related issues) to be evaluated.

A key challenge for the project was to identify where the pressure for development is likely to be greatest. This aspect of the approach was addressed through the development of an attractiveness index based on a range of infrastructure, environmental and demographic factors believed to influence development attractiveness. This attractiveness index, calculated for individual land parcels, has been used as the basis for evaluating likely development take-up and associated impacts.

Scenarios such as impact of peak oil were explored by interpreting the influence of this factor for attractiveness. Current and proposed infrastructure improvements have also been used as the basis for different scenarios.

The profile of land parcels in terms of environmental considerations (biodiversity and water supply), and agricultural land use (particularly intensive agriculture) have been used as the basis of assessing impacts, and alternative planning policies.

Key spatial datasets used as the basis for housing development capacity estimates are existing planning zone and scheme information, cadastral land parcels, and building information. Estimated demand in terms of projected population and dwelling growth on an SLA basis was sourced from the Victorian Department of Planning and Community Development (DPCD)’s “Victoria in Future” projections (VIF2008).

Demonstrated Capabilities Ability to design and implement a suitable conceptual model to support complex demographic, cadastral and land use planning scenario modelling. Ability to consult with and present complex information to stakeholders on planning scenario issues. Development of a cost effective, transparent, modular and repeatable project methodology and modelling approach suitable for ongoing refinement. Resources Milos Pelikan was the primary designer of the conceptual model, supported by Liam Densley in its implementation and development of resultant spatial products. Stephen Farrell was responsible for project management and report preparation of spatial modelling components of this project. Professor Michael Buxton from the RMIT School of Global Studies, Social Sciences and Planning was responsible for the overall project and led specialist planning input.
Technologies Applied • ArcGIS Spatial Analyst • ArcGIS Desktop View on right shows cadastral parcels and planning zones, in addition to buildings and subdivision potential under current schemes, which forms the basis of development capacity estimates.
LGA Case study right showing that projected demand for rural housing for LGA will not be met by development capacity by 2040. Figure below shows in blue the unmet rural housing demand for Peri-urban LGAs by Attractiveness surface (middle) showing in red where rural development demand is projected to be greatest under a business as usual model, while lower view shows contrast with peak-carbon scenario attractiveness result.
	Peri-urban LGA Planning spatial modelling framework to support scenarios.